Nuclear program of iran timeline




















July 14 — President Hassan Rouhani said Iran was ready to hold discussions with the United States if the Trump administration agreed to end crippling sanctions and return to the nuclear deal. Discussions were good. The Europeans urged Iran to fully comply with the nuclear deal, and all parties agreed to hold a higher-level meeting with foreign ministers in the future. No date was announced at the summit.

Salehi added that Iran had enriched 24, kilograms of uranium since The nuclear deal restricted Iran to a kilogram stockpile. Zarif added that European countries should guarantee the sale of Iranian oil. The waivers, which were renewed for an additional 90 days, specifically permitted European, Russian, and Chinese companies to continue civil nuclear projects at Iranian nuclear facilities.

There is no perfect deal," he said. He added that the U. French President Emmanuel Macron said Paris was willing to reduce sanctions or develop a compensation mechanism if Iran agreed to return to the deal.

The assessment said Iran had accumulated Tehran said it would take measures such as resuming uranium enrichment at 20 percent, which it said it could do within one to two days. Iran originally set the deadline as Sept. Rouhani said Iran would begin developing centrifuges for faster uranium enrichment at nuclear power plants. National Security Advisor John Bolton demanded a report as soon as possible. They just wiped it out. Advanced centrifuges were supposed to only be used in small numbers for research purposes.

The announcement coincided with the 40th anniversary of the takeover of the U. Salehi said that Iran went from producing about grams 1 pound of low-enriched uranium a day to 5 kilograms 11 pounds. The heavily fortified facility, built inside a mountain, was intended to be a research facility under the JCPOA, not an active site. The IR-1 centrifuges at Fordo had been spinning but were not enriching uranium. On November 6, Kamalvandi clarified that uranium gas would only be injected into of the centrifuges and that the remaining would produce stable medical isotopes.

The nuclear deal allowed for periodic IAEA inspections to ensure Iran was adhering to regulations. Secretary of State Pompeo accused Tehran of extorting the international community into accepting its nuclear program and behavior in the region. On the following day, the watchdog confirmed that the Heavy Water Production Plant was active and that Iran had Heavy water is often used as a moderator to slow down reactions in nuclear reactors. Heavy water reactors can produce plutonium for use in nuclear weapons.

But heavy water poses less of a proliferation concern than uranium because spent fuel from heavy water reactors must be reprocessed to separate the plutonium. He stipulated that Washington must first remove all sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic. Use of advanced centrifuges to enrich uranium would be a violation of the nuclear deal. Tehran had already breached the agreement five times since July 1.

But the European powers would not rush to reimpose U. Tehran emphasized that all its actions were reversible and that it would return to the deal if sanctions would be lifted and its interests could be guaranteed.

Iran said it would continue to cooperate with International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors. It was the strongest action taken by European powers to enforce the agreement. If Iran does not return to compliance, the process could result in the reimposition of U. The parties will have some 60 days to negotiate. Pick the right path. The right path is to return to the nuclear deal. He did not detail how much more uranium was being enriched.

The announcement suggested Tehran had significantly ramped up enrichment since November, when the IAEA said the stockpile was Rouhani added that Iran was willing to negotiate with European powers.

Security Council. Iran had tripled its stockpile of low- enriched uranium over the previous three months, it said in one report. It shortened the breakout time to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon, although the IAEA did not find evidence that Iran had taken steps to produce a bomb. Iran had denied inspectors access to two suspect sites where it was suspected of storing undeclared nuclear material The resolution was the first formal challenge of Iran in eight years from the IAEA Board of Governors.

The blast damaged a factory producing advanced IR-4 and IR-6 centrifuges that enrich uranium faster than the IR-1 models allowed under the nuclear deal. Enriched uranium can be used to produce energy or fuel a bomb. The damage set back the enrichment program by months, Iran conceded. The JCPOA stipulated that Tehran was limited to producing a maximum of kilograms or pounds of uranium enriched to only 3.

Tehran had stockpiled 2, kilograms or 5, pounds of uranium enriched to 4. Experts claim that Iran could produce two nuclear weapons if it enriched its entire stockpile to 90 percent. Because of its growing stockpile, the so-called breakout time needed to enrich enough uranium for one nuclear bomb decreased from more than a year to about three months, the Institute for Science and International Security estimated.

Generating fuel is one of three steps required to make a viable bomb; the others are designing the weapon and marrying it to a delivery system, such as a missile or a bomb from a warplane. Iran had claimed that the warehouse was a carpet-cleaning facility after Israel had revealed its existence in September Iran blamed Israel and vowed retaliation.

Uranium must be enriched to 90 percent or above to fuel a weapon. The Guardian Council later extended the deadline to two months. The agency verified that centrifuges cascades at Fordo had been reconfigured to enrich levels of uranium from 4.

Iran would need grams of highly enriched uranium metal for a nuclear weapon core. The government said that did not plan to end all inspections, just those mandated under the Additional Protocol. Each cascade had IR-2M centrifuges and would enrich uranium up to 5 percent. Iran had previously blocked access to the sites for seven months before granting the IAEA access in August , which called its commitment to transparency into question.

Tehran had a secret nuclear weapons program until , when it was disbanded, according to U. Under the arrangement, the nuclear watchdog could not access cameras installed at declared nuclear sites but Iran will be required to save all surveillance footage for three months. But Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that the step, and all other breaches of the deal, was "reversible" if the Biden administration lifted sanctions. A fourth cascade of IR-2M centrifuges was installed but not enriching uranium, while installation of a fifth cascade was ongoing.

Each cascade had IR-2M centrifuges. Iran was now using a total of IR-2M centrifuges at Natanz. Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told Newsweek that the agency planned to ask Iran questions about uranium participles discovered at undeclared sites.

He added that Iran would engage with the IAEA "in good faith" about outstanding nuclear issues, such as the discovery of uranium particles at undeclared sites. April 10 - Iran began testing its most advanced nuclear centrifuge, the IR-9, at the Natanz enrichment site. Under the nuclear deal, Iran could only operate 5, first-generation IR-1 centrifuges until The IR-9 can enrich uranium 50 times faster than the IR April 11 - An explosion at Natanz hit the power supply for centrifuges and caused damage that could take up to nine months to fully repair, The New York Times reported.

It was the second major attack to sabotage operations at Natanz in less than a year. In July , an explosion caused significant damage to a centrifuge factory. Foreign Minister Zarif blamed Israel and vowed revenge.

April 13 - Iran said that it would begin enriching uranium to 60 percent, the highest level of enrichment that it has publicly acknowledged. The move would be a major breach of the nuclear deal and brought Tehran closer to having weapons grade uranium. Iran also planned to install 1, additional centrifuges at Natanz. Britain, France and Germany said that the move was "dangerous" and "contrary to the constructive spirit and good faith of these discussions.

In Tehran, President Rouhani reiterated that Iran was not seeking a nuclear weapon. This is what YOU do. Do not accuse us of making bombs, Iran's activities are completely peaceful. April 16 - Iran began enriching uranium up to 60 percent. April 19 - The IAEA and the Iranian government began expert-level talks in Vienna over uranium particles discovered by the nuclear watchdog at undeclared sites in Iran. The talks were aimed at "clarifying outstanding safeguards issues," the IAEA said.

Initially, Iran was using one cascade of IR-4 centrifuges and one cascade of IR-6 centrifuges to enrich uranium up to 60 percent. It converted the IR-4 centrifuges to instead enrich uranium up to 20 percent, the nuclear watchdog reported. The level of enrichment was "consistent with the fluctuations of the enrichment levels described by Iran ," the agency told member states.

May 24 - Iran and the IAEA extended a deal to capture surveillance footage at declared nuclear sites by one month. The agreement would expire on June 24, less than a week after Iran's presidential election on June The extension was designed to give more time for negotiations in Vienna to bring Iran and the United States back into compliance with the nuclear deal.

May 31 - The IAEA said that Iran had failed to provide a "necessary explanation" for the presence of uranium particles at three undeclared sites previously inspected by the agency. The IAEA estimated that Iran had 3, kilograms of enriched uranium, an increase of kg since the last quarterly report. The estimate was the smallest increase in Iran's nuclear stockpile since August June 7 - Iran had made no "concrete progress" in explaining the presence of uranium particles at three undeclared sites, the head of the U.

June 15 - Iran has produced 6. The country also was on track to produce more uranium enriched to 20 percent than required by a law passed by Parliament in December. Iran did not extend it or clarify whether it would continue to save surveillance footage. Secretary of State Blinken warned that expiration of the IAEA's monitoring agreement could complicate efforts to revive the nuclear deal.

But Iran did not respond to the U. Iran planned to use the metal, which would be enriched to 20 percent, to produce fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor. But uranium metal can also be used to make a nuclear weapon core, which is why the JCPOA prohibited uranium metal production.

Iran had produced a small amount of uranium metal in February , but it was not enriched. July 14 - President Rouhani said that Iran could enrich uranium up to weapons grade level, if necessary. Rouhani, however, reiterated his support for returning to the nuclear deal.

He expressed hope that his successor, Ebrahim Raisi, "will be able to finish the job. The metal would be used to fuel the Tehran Research Reactor, Iran previously claimed. But the metal could also be used to produce the core of a nuclear weapon.

August 16 — The State Department condemned Iran's increased production of uranium metal. Price warned that further breaches of the nuclear deal "will no provide Iran negotiating leverage" and "will only lead to Iran's further isolation.

August 17 — Iran was using a second cascade of centrifuges to enrich uranium to nearly weapons-grade level, the IAEA reported. Tehran added a cascade of advanced IR-4 centrifuges to enrich uranium up to 60 percent, according to a report by the U. It should also reform its banking sector. Other remaining signatories should engage Iran diplomatically and economically. Candidates in the U. But with Washington actively undermining the deal through reimposition and aggressive enforcement of sanctions, with increasing risks of spillover from growing regional tensions, and reports that some U.

Iran might well persist with its present approach of complying with the deal and waiting out the Trump administration, but it will require continued efforts by Europe in particular, as well as Russia and China, to provide it with diplomatic and economic incentives. Tehran could facilitate these efforts by enhancing its banking standards and demonstrating its ability to play a more constructive role in the region, starting with pressing the Huthis in Yemen to fully implement the initial deal brokered by the UN special envoy.

Democratic candidates in the U. It is easy to lose sight of the fact that the JCPOA, entering its fourth year of implementation, is serving its primary objective. While unilateral, U. For some officials, the objective is to bring Iran back to the negotiating table; for others, to pressure it to curb its regional actions and ballistic missile program; and for still others, to destabilise or even topple the regime. Both steps in turn could provoke a military confrontation. Even assuming the deal survives until these potential turning points, reverting to the status quo ante might not be sustainable.

If Trump wins re-election, it would be hard to imagine Iran weathering another four years of crippling sanctions. If a Democratic candidate were to prevail, he or she might well agree to resume U. In other words, at some point in the future there is a high probability that a successor agreement building on the JCPOA will be required. While Iran does not wish to contemplate this scenario at present, the fact is that none of the parties to the JCPOA is fully satisfied with the deal — neither Iran, because even under the Obama administration sanctions relief was insufficient, nor the U.

Ultimately, the same calculus that brought Iran and world powers to com-promise after thirteen years of standoff and two years of intensive negotiations, and which has led remaining JCPOA signatories to preserve it without the U. They still can and should be avoided. Hide Footnote. Trump, as candidate, had sworn to withdraw the U. Hide Footnote As president, he took a first stab at undermining the deal in October , when he refused to certify it on the grounds that sanctions relief had been disproportionate to Iranian nuclear concessions.

Thus, while renewing U. Hide Footnote After several rounds of intense negotiations between the UK, France and Germany collectively known as the E3 and the Trump administration, a mutually acceptable compromise among Western powers seemed within reach, but Trump deemed the progress insufficient and pulled the U.

Hide Footnote Though their efforts are politically commendable, their ability to cajole private-sector actors, in particular, has been extremely limited. As a result, unilateral U. At the same time, the Trump administration has outlined — at least — thirteen demands upon Iran entailing an overhaul of its nuclear, foreign and defence policies. Faced with criticism that the U. Crisis Group interview, Washington, October Hide Footnote It has also launched a diplomatic and information campaign against Iran, coordinated by a dedicated unit at the State Department.

This report, which examines what will need to be done to both salvage the deal and avoid a regional escalation, is based on interviews conducted throughout the year with European, Iranian and U. It analyses the third-year record of implementation and draws lessons from it. It suggests that — besides Iran remaining compliant with the deal and efforts by other remaining co-signatories to provide Tehran with economic and diplomatic incentives to do so — one way of sustaining the accord is to quietly explore ways to bolster it.

Hide Footnote The U. Interestingly, the Trump administration has not contested the fact that Iran has lived up to the letter of the agreement.

State Department, 4 December Progress lagged on the conversion of the heavy-water reactor in Arak into a proliferation-resistant one and the bunkered Fordow facility into a research and medical isotope production centre — but these delays, for which the U. First phase of testing on IR-1 centrifuges in Fordow has been completed and the model machines for stable isotope production have been transferred to Russia for further testing.

Crisis Group interviews, Brussels, May-December Crisis Group telephone interview, Vienna, 19 December Hide Footnote Indeed, the U. Having designated the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran AEOI and 23 of its subsidiaries as sanctioned entities, the Trump administration granted waivers for the Arak and Fordow projects, as well as the Bushehr power plant, where Russia provides fuel for the existing light-water reactor, repatriates its spent fuel and is constructing two additional power reactor units.

Department of State, 5 November Crisis Group interview, Brussels, 18 December While it received and processed the same number of applications as in ie, eighteen related to export of dual-use technology to Iran, it received only one from Germany after the U.

Since Implementation Day, the procurement channel received a total of 42 proposals, 28 of which were approved, four disapproved and nine withdrawn. One is currently under review. In April, Netanyahu revealed 55, pages of documents and another 55, files on CDs that Israeli intelligence operatives removed from a clandestine archive in Tehran in early He also alleged that the facility had held 15kg of radioactive material that Iran had since dispersed around Tehran.

Go inspect this atomic warehouse. Critics of the deal and lobby groups joined the effort to put more pressure on the IAEA. The agency says it has had access to wherever it wanted to inspect and benefits from a unique feature in the JCPOA, requiring Iran to grant access to any suspect sites within 24 days or face consequences.

Hide Footnote Nor did other countries with whom Israel shared the intelligence alter their approach. Crisis Group interviews, Brussels, December A concern during this period was that, in response to U. Hide Footnote In response, the AEOI reopened a plant for the production of uranium hexafluoride or UF6, which is the feedstock for centrifuges ; refurbished the electrical infrastructure at Natanz enrichment site; and built a factory that purportedly can produce rotors for up to 60 advanced centrifuges per day.

Hide Footnote More recently, Iran announced preliminary steps to design a more efficient 20 per cent fuel assembly for the Tehran research reactor. Hide Footnote None of these steps violates the JCPOA, but, in a clear attempt by Iran to increase the pressure on the remaining parties to the deal, signalled what its unravelling could entail.

Following the lifting of nuclear-related international sanctions in January , the contours of an Iranian economic recovery took shape. Inflation fell to single digits. Hide Footnote Yet despite the inking of several marquee deals with major foreign firms, normalising banking ties remained a challenge. Scores of international companies announced that they would end or suspend their operations in Iran even before U.

Hide Footnote These came in two major tranches: an initial set of non-oil sanctions on 7 August, and a second more significant batch on 5 November against over persons and entities, including around new targets. Energy Information Administration, 23 October Hide Footnote More damaging to the Iranian economy than the reduced volume of oil exports is the requirement under U.

See H. Nearly two thirds of oil revenues will be earmarked for the government budget, with the remainder split between the National Development Fund and National Iranian Oil Company.

Donya-ye Eqtesad, 27 December Hide Footnote In fact, U. Hide Footnote Dozens of unlicensed credit unions, which had mushroomed over the past few years, became insolvent in , sending angry depositors into the streets.

Crisis Group interview, Tehran, May Hide Footnote To calm the situation, the government bailed out these institutions and repaid the depositors, adding to the already ballooning money supply in parallel to slashing interest rates. To protect their assets or secure a profit, many Iranians started converting their rial holdings into foreign currencies and gold. The increase in demand for hard currencies coincided with challenges Iran faced in repatriating its oil revenues, as in early financial regulators in Dubai and Turkey severed banking channels to Iran.

Hide Footnote Sensing the shortage of hard currency, the market panicked and the rial, whose value the government had kept artificially high for six years, started to slide against the U. Crisis Group interview, Washington, December These steps empowered the black market, accelerated capital flight and permitted rent-seekers to benefit from arbitrage.

Some speculate that the government purposely did not adjust the foreign exchange rate in time to allow vested interests to convert and extract their capital. Crisis Group interviews, Iranian economists and bankers, Tehran, November Since then, senior Central Bank officials have been arrested or barred from leaving the country. Then in August, in a major turnabout, the government decided to stop dictating the exchange rate, allowing the open market to do so.

The government also created Iran's Portal for Unifying Currency Exchanges, widely known as NIMA, designed as a platform for businesses to buy foreign currency from exporters such as petrochemical companies. Hide Footnote In parallel, however, and to combat the ensuing inflation, it maintained the exchange rate of 42, rials to the U. With more revised fiscal policies, the rial regained some ground and was trading at around , to the U. Hide Footnote Nonetheless, devaluation caused prices of imported consumer goods and domestically produced goods using imported intermediate components to soar.

The year-on-year inflation rate in December reached Hide Footnote In August, Iranian officials projected that the country would lose nearly a million jobs by March as a result of sanctions. ISNA, 31 December While the currency crisis has had some upsides for the government — eg, allowing it to pay most of its debt to the banking sector and stem capital flight — it took a toll on the Rouhani administration, which many Iranians perceived as impotent at best and incompetent at worst.

Hide Footnote And, in a rare move, parliament summoned the president for questioning. The supreme leader welcomed the questioning but did not allow it to end in impeachment. Crisis Group interview, Tehran, September In parallel, the Rouhani administration has striven to blunt the impact of U. There were also 26 per cent increases to the UAE and Afghanistan, while exports to Pakistan and Oman saw growth of 63 and 57 per cent, respectively.

Hide Footnote Tehran is also mulling using cryptocurrencies to evade U. In August, Supreme Leader Khamenei authorised the establishment of special courts to try economic corruption cases.

Iran executed at least three people and arrested dozens on corruption charges in November and December Hide Footnote If past is prologue, however, efforts to tackle corruption will face an uphill battle at a time when Iran increasingly relies on smuggling and black-market trade to circumvent sanctions.

In its October plenary, the FATF extended the suspension of counter-measures against Iran, setting February as the next deadline for addressing nine areas of continued concern. Amendments to bills on joining the Convention Against Transnational Organised Crime and the Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism are under review. As with previous rounds, the new U. Hide Footnote Persons and groups with greatest access to state privileges, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC , which controls borders, are best positioned to survive and even thrive in the new environment.

Hide Footnote In contrast, the middle class and the poor bear the brunt of the economic duress. Hide Footnote Reports from Tehran suggest the emergence of a black market in medications and medical supplies amid shortages and rising prices.

There are also concerns regarding the repercussions on biodiversity conservation. See Sarah Durant et al. A chart by the U. Over the past two decades, Iran has suffered from aviation-related accident and fatality rates at ten and 5. Reacting to difficulties in conducting humanitarian trade with Iran, a U. With the World Bank forecasting a marked rise in inflation and a 1.

In January , the official youth unemployment rate reached 27 per cent and over 40 per cent among university graduates. That said, sources of resilience exist within the Iranian economy. Hide Footnote Non-oil exports are on the rise, providing Iran with a positive trade balance, and Tehran hopes that the remaining JCPOA signatories and other friendly nations will throw it an additional lifeline.

Iran violates the agreement, charging that the Europeans reneged on their promises of economic and political incentives. After 22 hours of negotiations, an Iranian delegation and senior officials from France, Germany, Britain and the European Union come to a preliminary agreement to immediately suspend Iran's production of enriched uranium. The Iranian foreign minister, Kamal Kharrazi, praises the so-called Paris Agreement but emphasizes that any suspension will be temporary.

In a few weeks, the I. A verifies Iran's suspension of its enrichment activities, with one exception: its request to use up to 20 sets of centrifuge components for research and development. Senior American intelligence officials present the International Atomic Energy Agency with the contents of what they say is a stolen Iranian laptop containing more than a thousand pages of Iranian computer simulations and accounts of experiments -- studies for crucial features of a nuclear warhead.

Intelligence reports reveal that Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a little-known Iranian scientist, leads elements of Iran's weaponization program known as Project and Project But doubts about the intelligence persist among some experts, in part because American officials, citing the need to protect their source, have largely refused to provide details of the origins of the laptop beyond saying that they obtained it in mid from a source in Iran who they said had received it from a second person, now believed to be dead.

Iran resumes uranium enrichment at Natanz after negotiations with European and American officials collapse. The I. Just days before Iran is supposed to suspend enrichment of uranium or face the prospect of sanctions, President Ahmadinejad formally kicks off a heavy-water production plant in Arak, miles southwest of Tehran, which would put Iran on the path to obtaining plutonium, a fuel used in nuclear weapons.

In November, Iran seeks international assistance to ensure safe operation for a megawatt reactor it is building. Citing broader doubts about Iran's nuclear ambitions, the United Nations atomic agency, the United States and European countries oppose offering help. President George W. Bush will hand off the major covert program to President Obama. The United States works with Israel to begin cyberattacks, code-named Olympic Games, on computer systems at the Natanz plant.

A year later, the program is introduced undetected into a controller computer at Natanz. Centrifuges begin crashing and engineers have no clue that the plant is under attack. Burns, a senior American official, to the table for the first time. Iran responds with a written document that fails to address the main issue: international demands that it stop enriching uranium. Iranian diplomats reiterate before the talks that they consider the issue nonnegotiable.

American, British and French officials declassify some of their most closely held intelligence and describe a multiyear Iranian effort, tracked by spies and satellites, to build a secret uranium enrichment plant deep inside a mountain. The new plant, which Iran strongly denies is intended to be kept secret or used for making weapons, is months from completion and does nothing to shorten intelligence estimates of how long it would take Iran to produce a bomb.

American intelligence officials say it will take at least a year, perhaps five, for Iran to develop the full ability to make a nuclear weapon.

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates warns in a secret three-page memorandum to top White House officials that the United States does not have an effective long-range policy for dealing with Iran's steady progress toward nuclear capability. When the memo becomes public in April, Mr. Gates issues a statement saying that he wishes to dispel any perception among allies that the administration had failed to adequately think through how to deal with Iran.

The United States and Israel realize that copies of the computer sabotage program introduced in Natanz are available on the Internet, where they are replicating quickly.

In a few weeks, articles appear in the news media about a mysterious new computer worm carried on USB keys that exploits a hole in the Windows operating system. The worm is named Stuxnet. President Obama decides not to kill the program, and a subsequent attack takes out nearly 1, Iranian centrifuges, nearly a fifth of those operating.

The sanctions curtail military purchases, trade and financial transactions carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which controls the nuclear program. The Security Council also requires countries to inspect ships or planes headed to or from Iran if they suspect banned cargo. In addition, Iran is barred from investing in other countries' nuclear enrichment plants, uranium mines and related technologies, and the Security Council sets up a committee to monitor enforcement.

Shahram Amiri, an Iranian nuclear scientist who American officials say defected to the United States in , provided information about Iran's nuclear weapons program and then developed second thoughts, returning to Iran. After a hero's welcome, he was imprisoned on treason charges and tortured, according to reports from Iran. The bizarre episode was the latest in a tale that has featured a mysterious disappearance from a hotel room in Saudi Arabia, rumors of a trove of new intelligence about Iran's nuclear plants and a series of contradictory YouTube videos.

It immediately set off a renewed propaganda war between Iran and the United States. The scientist who was killed, Majid Shahriari, reportedly managed a ''major project'' for the country's Atomic Energy Organization. His wounded colleague, Fereydoon Abbasi, is believed to be even more important; he is on the United Nations Security Council's sanctions list for ties to the Iranian nuclear effort.

West Expands Sanctions, and U. Offers Evidence on Nuclear Work Major Western powers take significant steps to cut Iran off from the international financial system, announcing coordinated sanctions aimed at its central bank and commercial banks.

After a dip in enriched uranium production in because of the cyberattacks, Iranian production recovers. While the United States and Israel never acknowledged responsibility for the cyberprogram, Olympic Games, some experts argue that it set the Iranians back a year or two.

Others say that estimate overstates the effect.



0コメント

  • 1000 / 1000